{"id":20110,"date":"2024-08-09T03:09:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-09T03:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/phl-surprises-with-6-3-gdp-growth\/"},"modified":"2024-08-09T03:09:00","modified_gmt":"2024-08-09T03:09:00","slug":"phl-surprises-with-6-3-gdp-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/phl-surprises-with-6-3-gdp-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"PHL surprises with 6.3% GDP growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"p2\">By <b>Abigail Marie P. Yraola, <\/b><i>Deputy Research Head<\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s2\">THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY <\/span><span class=\"s3\">ex<\/span><span class=\"s4\">panded faster than expected in <\/span><span class=\"s5\">the second quarter, as higher government spending and investments o<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">f<\/span><span class=\"s4\">set \u201canemic\u201d household consump<\/span><span class=\"s5\">tion, government data showed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">Preliminary data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by an annual 6.3% in the April-to-June period, the fastest in <\/span><span class=\"s7\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">ive quarters or since the 6.4% in the <\/span><span class=\"s2\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">irst quarter of 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">It was stronger than the revised 5.8% growth in the first quarter and 4.3% in the second quarter of 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><a title=\"Philippines' quarterly GDP performance\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/142608056@N02\/53909869931\/in\/dateposted\/\" data-flickr-embed=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"high\" loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/53909869931_112a26c569_o.jpg\" alt=\"Philippines' quarterly GDP performance\" width=\"300\" height=\"2551\"><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>It also beat the 6% median forecast in a <i>BusinessWorld<\/i> poll of 19 economists last week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the country\u2019s GDP expanded by 0.5%, slowing from 1.1%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\">National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said the second-quarter GDP print kept the Philippines among Asia\u2019s best-performing economies. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">At 6.3%, the Philippines\u2019 GDP growth was the second-fastest in the April-to-June period, only behind Vietnam (6.9%). It was ahead of Malaysia (5.8%), Indonesia (5%) and China (4.7%).<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cWhile these numbers are encouraging, our growth performance could have been even more impactful on all Filipinos if not for the high in<\/span><span class=\"s2\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">lation and interest rates the country experienced,\u201d Mr. Balisacan said at a news brie<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">ing on Thursday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">For the <span class=\"s2\">f<\/span>irst half, GDP growth averaged 6%, hitting the low end of the government\u2019s target of 6%-7% this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cIn the second half, (the economy) would have to grow by [at least] 6% to fall within that range of the target,\u201d Mr. Balisacan said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Among the main contributors to growth were construction (16%); wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (5.8%), and financial and insurance activities (8.2%).<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cOn the demand side, the acceleration in GDP growth was driven by a significant increase in total investments by 11.5%, fueled by robust construction activities,\u201d Mr. Balisacan said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Gross capital formation, the investment component of the economy, grew by 11.5% in the second quarter but this was slower than the 0.5% growth in the previous quarter and 0.7% a year ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s4\">Public construction grew by 21.8% in the second quarter, faster than the 12.1% a year ago as the government ramped up infrastructure and rehabilitation projects. Private construction also rose by 9.9%, faster than the 5.3% a year ago, with commercial construction increasing by 13.6%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cOur impressive growth performance clearly demonstrates that infrastructure is our way forward. We need to build more, build better, and build faster so that Filipinos can reap the benefits of these high-impact projects at the soonest possible time,\u201d Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said in a separate statement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Government spending rose by 10.7%, faster than the 1.7% in the previous quarter and a reversal from the 7.1% contraction a year earlier. This was the fastest growth since the second quarter of 2022.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><b>\u2018ANEMIC\u2019 CONSUMPTION<br \/>\n<\/b>Household final consumption, which accounts for over 70% of the economy, rose by 4.6% year on year in the second quarter, slowing from the 5.5% growth in the same quarter in 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Balisacan said household final consumption expenditure continued to be \u201ca bit anemic\u201d in the second quarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cThe growth is not as strong as one would expect\u2026 Which meant that the impact of the high inflation and the high interest rates that were implemented months earlier, quarters earlier, are now being felt and are likely to continue,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s4\">The PSA said spending on health, recreation and restaurants remained strong, but there was a decline in spending on clothing, footwear and household furnishings. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Pantheon Economics\u2019 Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said household spending fell by 0.1% quarter on quarter, extending the 0.2% dip seen in the first quarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\"><a title=\"How each segment contributed to Q2 2024 GDP\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/142608056@N02\/53910313665\/in\/photostream\/\" data-flickr-embed=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/53910313665_90e94fbeed_o.jpg\" alt=\"How each segment contributed to Q2 2024 GDP\" width=\"300\" height=\"3286\"><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\u201cThe main story from our perspective is that private consumption \u2014 the Philippines\u2019 primary engine \u2014 has entered a technical, if shallow, recession,\u201d he said in a note.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Chanco said household spending is expected to remain constrained by \u201cdeteriorating balance sheets and waning consumer confidence.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe only real bright spot in the Q2 GDP report was merchandise exports, which rose quarter on quarter for the first time in three quarters,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Exports of goods and services grew by 4.2% year on year in the second quarter, slowing from the 8.4% growth in the previous quarter and 4.7% a year earlier.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Imports also grew by an annual 5.2% in April to June from 2.2% in the first quarter and a turnaround from the 0.6% contraction a year ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><b>STRONGER THAN EXPECTED<br \/>\n<\/b>\u201cThe stronger-than-expected GDP print was probably due to a faster growth pace for both public and private construction as election-related spending has already begun way ahead of the May 2025 midterm elections,\u201d Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">However, Mr. Neri noted the GDP data suggest that the second-half and full-year 2024 growth are likely to fall below the government\u2019s target for the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Shivaan Tandon, Capital Economics markets economist, said that year-on-year GDP growth picked up due to favorable base effects.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe latest data suggest that after a year of resilience amid tight monetary policy and high inflation, domestic demand has now come under pressure and we expect this weakness to persist in the near term,\u201d he said in a research note.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">While easing inflation should support private consumption, Mr. Tandon said the boost to real incomes would be offset by the slowdown in remittances.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Sunny Liu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said GDP could expand by 5.8% this year, improving from the 5.5% GDP growth in 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cHowever, we remain wary of the possible real impact if the recent volatility in global markets persists. There are downside risks to our forecasts,\u201d she said in a research note.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">HSBC ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) economist Aris D. Dacanay said in a research note that GDP growth was in line with expectations, but private demand remained weak.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cConsumers might still be reeling in their expenses from the brunt of high inflation while private investors likely delayed some of their investment projects due to high interest rates,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><b>TO CUT OR NOT<br \/>\n<\/b>Meanwhile, ANZ Research economist Arindam Chakraborty and Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh said investment growth will be the main driver of growth this year, as external demand is unlikely to be robust.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u2018Overall, we do not think the Q2 GDP and July in<span class=\"s2\">f<\/span>lation data together warrant an interest rate cut in next week\u2019s policy meeting,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Inflation in July quickened to a nine-month high to 4.4% from 3.7% in June, breaching the BSP\u2019s 2-4% target.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">On the other hand, BPI\u2019s Mr. Neri said that the probability of rate cut on Aug. 15 has slightly increased following the GDP print.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cIf not in August, they can do an off-cycle reduction in early September or during their scheduled meeting in October [if monthly consumer price index] prints decline from their July and August print,\u201d Mr. Neri said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div>THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY expanded faster than expected in the second quarter, as higher government spending and investments offset \u201canemic\u201d household consumption, government data showed.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[15333,14644,11604,11413,11354,6181,140],"class_list":["post-20110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-6-3","tag-bworldonline","tag-gdp","tag-growth","tag-phl","tag-surprises","tag-with"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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