{"id":20076,"date":"2024-08-07T03:15:49","date_gmt":"2024-08-07T03:15:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/inflation-quickens-to-9-month-high\/"},"modified":"2024-08-07T03:15:49","modified_gmt":"2024-08-07T03:15:49","slug":"inflation-quickens-to-9-month-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/inflation-quickens-to-9-month-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation quickens to 9-month high"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"p3\">By <b>Luisa Maria Jacinta C. <\/b><span class=\"s2\"><b>Jocson, <\/b><\/span><i>Reporter <\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">HEADLINE INFLATION accelerated<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> to a nine-month high in July, mainly driven by a spike in electricity rates and food costs, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s3\">The consumer price index quickened to 4.4% year on year in July from 3.7% in June, falling within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas\u2019 (BSP) 4%-4.8% forecast.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">It was higher than the 4% median estimate in a <i>BusinessWorld <\/i>poll of 15 analysts conducted last week.<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Inflation rates in the Philippines\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/142608056@N02\/53905642156\/in\/photostream\/\" data-flickr-embed=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/53905642156_be23f00a08_o.jpg\" alt=\"Inflation rates in the Philippines\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1326\"><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">The July print was also the fastest in nine months or since the 4.9% clip in October 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">July also ended seven straight months of in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation settling within the central bank\u2019s 2-4% target band. Inflation had been within target from December 2023 to June 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">In the <span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>irst seven months of the year, headline inflation averaged 3.7%, above the central bank\u2019s 3.3% full-year forecast.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Core in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation, which excludes volatile prices of food and fuel, sharply eased to 2.9% in July from 6.7% a year ago. Core in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation averaged 3.3% in the <span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>irst seven months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cThe latest in<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">lation outturn is consistent with the BSP\u2019s latest assessment that inflation will temporarily settle above the target range in July 2024 due mainly to higher electricity rates and positive base e<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">fects but will likely follow a general downtrend beginning in August 2024,\u201d the central bank said in a statement.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s5\">National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said that the main source of faster in<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">lation in July was the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels index which rose to 2.3% in July from 0.1% in June.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cFor power, we really expected that, because Meralco (Manila Electric Co.) adjusted rates in July. That\u2019s where we saw a signi<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">icant contribution to in<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">lation,\u201d Mr. <\/span><span class=\"s6\">Mapa said in mixed English and Filipino.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">In July, Meralco raised rates by P2.1496 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to bring the overall rate for a typical household to P11.6012 per kWh.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">In<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation of lique<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>ied petroleum gas (LPG) surged to 20.2% in July from 14.7% in the previous month, as LPG prices rose by P0.55 per kilogram.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s5\">Mr. Mapa also noted the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index, which increased to 6.4% in July from 6.1% a month earlier and 6.3% a year ago.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Food inflation accelerated to 6.7% from 6.5% in June. This was primarily driven by faster prices in meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals (4.8% in July from 3.1% in June) and fruits and nuts (8.4% from 5.6%).<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Meanwhile, rice inflation further eased to 20.9% in July from 22.5% a month prior, marking the fourth straight month of slower rice in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">PSA data showed that the average price of regular milled rice fell to P50.90 per kilogram in July from P51.10 in June; while well-milled rice declined to P55.85 per kilo from P55.96 in June.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">While it is possible that Typhoon Carina hurt food prices in July, Mr. Mapa said its impact will be most likely <span class=\"s7\">reflected in August inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cIt\u2019s possible that the impact of the storm has started, normally based on our historical data, prices of vegetables rise after a typhoon. That is the expectation we have, that this could rise in August.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s5\">Agricultural damage due to Typhoon Carina and the southwest monsoon, which hit Metro Manila and nearby provinces in late July, stood at P3.04 billion. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s7\">Transport in<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s7\">lation was also one of the main drivers to the uptick in July in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s7\">lation, Mr. Mapa said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">In July, transport in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation picked up to 3.6% from 3.1% a month ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cThis increase was driven by increasing global petroleum prices due to the unexpected large withdrawals of United States gasoline stocks, optimistic fuel demand forecasts, and the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East,\u201d the National Economic and Development Authority said in a statement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s5\">In July, pump price adjustments stood at a net increase of P1.30 a liter for gasoline. Diesel and kerosene had a net decrease of P0.90 and P1.70, respectively, per liter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Meanwhile, the in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation rate for the bottom 30% of income households accelerated to 5.8% in July from 5.5% in June and 5.2% a year ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s8\">In the seven months to July, the in<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s8\">lation rate for the bottom 30% averaged 4.9%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s5\">In the National Capital Region (NCR), in<\/span><span class=\"s7\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">lation eased to 3.7% in July from 5.6% a year prior. In<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">lation in areas outside NCR averaged 4.6%, faster than 4.4% a year ago.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a title=\"How much did each commodity group contribute to July inflation?\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/142608056@N02\/53905891963\/in\/dateposted\/\" data-flickr-embed=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/53905891963_31bbab49d9_o.jpg\" alt=\"How much did each commodity group contribute to July inflation?\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1255\"><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p class=\"p8\"><b>OUTLOOK<br \/>\n<\/b>The BSP said that risks to the in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation outlook have shifted to the downside for this year and the next, primarily due to the tari<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>f cut on rice imports.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. in June signed an executive order which slashed tariffs on rice imports to 15% from 35% previously, until 2028.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cNonetheless, higher prices of food items other than rice, as well as higher transport and electricity charges continue to pose upside risks to in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation,\u201d the central bank added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said that the uptick in July in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation is only temporary.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cIn<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">lation rate is expected to stabilize and fall within target for the rest of the year as the impact of government interventions, particularly the reduced rice tari<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">fs, will be more pronounced starting this August,\u201d he said in a statement.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">PSA\u2019s Mr. Mapa said that rice inflation could continue to ease in the coming months, which would support slower headline in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">He said the reduction in tariffs on rice imports could \u201csigni<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>icantly\u201d bring down rice prices in August. Rice in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation could possibly be slower than 20% in August, he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p8\"><b>RATE CUT OFF THE TABLE?<br \/>\n<\/b>The BSP said that it will consider the latest in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation data and upcoming second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data at its Aug. 15 meeting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cMoving forward, the BSP will ensure that monetary policy settings remain in line with its primary mandate to safeguard price stability conducive to sustainable economic growth,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said that the \u201cbigger-than-expected jump\u201d in in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation may prompt the BSP to keep rates steady next week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cIn terms of the outlook for monetary policy, the July breach of the BSP\u2019s target range, while well within the range of outcomes projected by the (central) bank, likely means that an August rate cut is now o<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">f the table,\u201d he said in an e-mail note.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said in a report that the probability of a rate cut in August has declined as in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation breached the target band.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">On Tuesday, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said the central bank is \u201ca little bit less likely\u201d to ease rates at its August meeting as inflation was \u201cslightly worse than expected.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cIt would be extremely odd for BSP to cut rates next week after this, though we don\u2019t believe we will have to wait for too long before cuts are on their way,\u201d ING Regional Head of Research for Asia-Paci<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">ic Robert Carnell said in a note.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Meanwhile, Mr. Neri said that the BSP\u2019s easing cycle is still \u201con the horizon\u201d amid easing core inflation and if second-quarter GDP data \u201csigni<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>icantly misses the forecasts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cA big upside miss to today\u2019s <span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>igures could push back BSP aspirations to cut rates in August. But with the (peso) gaining some support as the USD weakens in the current market volatility, an August cut remains a possibility,\u201d ING Bank said in a note.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Mr. Chanco said that 75 basis points (bps) worth of cuts is still possible this year amid expectations of the US Federal Reserve\u2019s easing cycle beginning September.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cAccordingly, our revised base case for the BSP is a 25-bp cut in October, followed by a 50-bp in December. To be sure, if we\u2019re right about a likely huge miss in Thursday\u2019s second-quarter GDP report, then an August cut could come swiftly back into the discussion,\u201d Mr. Chanco added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Mr. Neri ruled out \u201caggressive\u201d rate cuts in the coming months amid domestic and external headwinds.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cThe BSP will likely prioritize domestic data in its policy decision on Aug. 15, but it may also consider global developments,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cAny signals from the Federal Reserve suggesting a substantial rate cut in September could increase the chances of a rate cut from the BSP in the next policy meeting.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">After Aug. 15, the Monetary Board\u2019s remaining policy-setting meetings this year are on Oct. 17 and Dec. 19.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div>HEADLINE INFLATION accelerated to a nine-month high in July, mainly driven by a spike in electricity rates and food costs, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20077,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[19074,14644,1421,4285,16205],"class_list":["post-20076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-9-month","tag-bworldonline","tag-high","tag-inflation","tag-quickens"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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