{"id":20010,"date":"2024-08-02T03:10:11","date_gmt":"2024-08-02T03:10:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/inflation-likely-rose-in-july-poll\/"},"modified":"2024-08-02T03:10:11","modified_gmt":"2024-08-02T03:10:11","slug":"inflation-likely-rose-in-july-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/inflation-likely-rose-in-july-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation likely rose in July \u2014 poll"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"p2\">By <b>Luisa Maria Jacinta C. <\/b><span class=\"s4\"><b>Jocson, <\/b><\/span><i>Reporter<\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s5\">HEADLINE INFLATION likely<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">accelerated in July but <\/span><span class=\"s5\">re<\/span><span class=\"s8\">mained within the central <\/span><span class=\"s5\">bank\u2019s <\/span><span class=\"s6\">2-4% target range, ana<\/span><span class=\"s7\">lysts<\/span><span class=\"s9\"> said. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">A <i>BusinessWorld<\/i> poll of 15 analysts this week yielded a median estimate of 4% for the consumer price index (CPI) in July. This matches the lower end of the 4%-4.8% forecast of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s10\">July in<\/span><span class=\"s6\">f<\/span><span class=\"s10\">lation could be faster than 3.7% in June but slower than 4.7% a year earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Analysts\u2019 July inflation rate estimates\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/142608056@N02\/53895403445\/in\/photostream\/\" data-flickr-embed=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"high\" loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/53895403445_081702020d_o.jpg\" alt=\"Analysts\u2019 July inflation rate estimates\" width=\"2048\" height=\"936\"><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">July could also mark the eighth straight month that inflation settled within the BSP\u2019s 2-4% target. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s10\">The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is set to release in<\/span><span class=\"s6\">f<\/span><span class=\"s10\">lation data on Tuesday (Aug. 6).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s11\">BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told reporters late on Wednesday that inflation should have peaked in July, based on central bank projections. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto separately said July in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation was expected to have accelerated though still within target.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cComing from a low base, in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation will be higher, but still within target (2-4%),\u201d he told reporters late Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">However, Mr. Remolona noted that the full impact of Super Typhoon Carina and the southwest monsoon would not yet be re<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lected in the July print.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cIt won\u2019t a<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>fect the July number. Usually, the e<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>fects come with a lag so it may not even affect August in terms of the aggregate CPI basket.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Recto likewise said July in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation would be spared from the impact of typhoon losses. \u201cMost likely, the impact will be seen in August. It won\u2019t be in July.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The latest data from the Agriculture department showed that agricultural damage due to the typhoon and southwest monsoon had hit P1.21 billion as of July 31. Rice was the most a<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>fected crop, accounting for more than half of the damage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><b>RISING FOOD PRICES<br \/>\n<\/b>On the other hand, HSBC economist for ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Aris D. Dacanay said there could be a \u201cslight uptick\u201d in food prices due to the typhoon\u2019s impact on logistical costs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Sarah Tan, an economist from Moody\u2019s Analytics, said the immediate impact of the storm might not register yet in July but could still potentially stoke in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cHowever, given that the typhoon destroyed crop harvests in agricultural provinces like Pampanga, where the agricultural damage reportedly totaled more than P300 million, the impact on food supply could add price pressures in the coming months,\u201d she said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said inflation likely accelerated to 4.6% due to higher prices of some food items, particularly vegetables, fruits and condiments.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Price pressures will also come from higher electricity rates, analysts said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cHeadline in<\/span><span class=\"s6\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">lation may have also jumped month on month due to the steep increase in Metro Manila\u2019s electricity rates after being deliberately kept low in June,\u201d Mr. Dacanay said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">In July, Manila Electric Co. raised rates by P2.1496 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to bring the overall rate for a typical household to P11.6012 per kWh.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cFor July, higher electricity rates, elevated agricultural commodity prices and increased domestic oil costs drove in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation, and this was partially o<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>fset by lower rice and fruit prices, as well as the peso\u2019s appreciation,\u201d Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the stronger peso and the rollback in fuel prices could have offset inflationary pressures during the month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Pump price adjustments stood at a net increase of P1.30 a liter for gasoline for the month of July. Diesel and kerosene had a net decrease of P0.90 and P1.70, respectively, per liter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The potential breach of July in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation would be temporary, Mr. Roces said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cDespite the recent typhoon\u2019s possible, albeit transitory, impact on food prices, inflation is expected to return to target in August due to favorable base e<\/span><span class=\"s6\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">fects,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cIn<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation is still expected to immediately return to within the 2-4% target band once base e<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>fects fade and then ease to the range of 2-3% once the lower tariff rates on rice eventually begin to bring rice prices down,\u201d Mr. Dacanay added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. in June signed an executive order that slashed tari<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>fs on rice imports to 15% from 35% until 2028. It is widely expected to bring down the retail price of rice.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Remolona said the tari<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>f cut would \u201csigni<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>icantly moderate in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation\u201d in the coming months. \u201cThat\u2019s a good thing that will help us ease monetary policy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><b>RATE CUT<br \/>\n<\/b>The BSP chief again signaled cutting rates as early as this month. \u201cI think Aug. 15 is still a possibility. Of course, it will depend on the numbers,\u201d Mr. Remolona said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">He said they could cut possibly by 25 basis points (bps) at their Aug. 15 meeting, and by another 25 bps later in the year. The Monetary Board\u2019s (MB) last two policy meetings for the year are scheduled for Oct. 17 and Dec. 19.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cLess hawkish is the term that we\u2019ve been using. So, it\u2019s still hawkish, which means we will still remain tight, but maybe less tight than before,\u201d Mr. Remolona said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cIt\u2019s a tricky thing because we\u2019re so close to the point where we might be getting to below capacity. We want to reduce demand so that income falls just to the level of capacity of the economy,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">On the other hand, analysts noted that the central bank could keep rates steady amid continued risks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cSofter-than-expected inflation for July could prompt BSP to pull the trigger when the Monetary Board meets in August, but risks to food inflation and a weak peso could make them lean towards a rate hold,\u201d Ms. Tan said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWe maintain our expectation that the BSP is unlikely to leapfrog the Fed, keeping the policy rate at 6.5% in August,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Joseph A. Arogo said in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation breaching the target could derail the central bank\u2019s planned rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cAlthough supply side-driven, a breach of the 2-4% target in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation band of the BSP could complicate the timing of the forthcoming easing cycle,\u201d he said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Remolona said the BSP would also be taking into consideration the upcoming second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, among other key data points.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The PSA is set to release second-quarter GDP data on Aug. 8.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cA weaker-than-expected second-quarter GDP print will more likely mean that the MB will start easing rather than remaining unchanged as the MB looks to longer-term economic growth prospects amid high borrowing costs,\u201d Mr. Asuncion said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Metropolitan Bank &amp; Trust Co. Chief Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said the BSP\u2019s anticipated easing cycle would \u201cstimulate economic growth by encouraging new investments across various sectors.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cAs a result of all this, a potential resurgence in investment momentum is expected to accelerate GDP growth in the medium term, likely pushing it beyond the 6% pace of expansion and possibly even higher,\u201d he said in a Wealth Insights report. \u201cThis increased investment activity is anticipated to have both immediate and long-term positive e<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>fects on the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div>HEADLINE INFLATION likely accelerated in July but remained within the central bank\u2019s 2-4% target range, analysts said.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20011,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[14644,4285,15273,252,3132,11741,11],"class_list":["post-20010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-bworldonline","tag-inflation","tag-july","tag-likely","tag-poll","tag-rose","tag-years"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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