{"id":19765,"date":"2024-07-16T03:04:53","date_gmt":"2024-07-16T03:04:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/phl-likely-to-grow-by-5-6-this-year-house-think-tank\/"},"modified":"2024-07-16T03:04:53","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T03:04:53","slug":"phl-likely-to-grow-by-5-6-this-year-house-think-tank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/phl-likely-to-grow-by-5-6-this-year-house-think-tank\/","title":{"rendered":"PHL likely to grow by 5-6% this year \u2014 House think tank"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

By Kenneth Christiane L. <\/b>Basilio<\/b><\/p>\n

THE GOVERNMENT of President <\/span>Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. might <\/span>have done enough pump-priming and should let the private sector take on a bigger role in boosting the economy, according to a congressional think tank. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe resilience and ingenuity demonstrated by Filipinos, particularly in crises, should serve as a reminder that the government can trust the private sector to do its part in growing the economy. To realize this potential, policy makers must prioritize providing a favorable environment for businesses to thrive,\u201d the Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department (CPBRD) said in a report on Monday. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis includes lowering regulatory burdens, improving infrastructure, investing in education and skills development in areas that o<\/span>f<\/span>fer the highest economic returns, and fostering competition,\u201d it added. <\/span><\/p>\n

The Philippine economy would probably grow by 5.02% to 6.17% this year, compared with the government target of 6-7%, the CPBRD said, noting that heightened inf<\/span>lationary pressures, tightening fiscal constraints, weak capital formation and anemic growth in critical productive sectors could further hamper growth.<\/p>\n

The think tank said inf<\/span>lation is still a \u201clarge and growing threat to economic growth and stability.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIf prevailing inflationary pressure remains unabated, the likelihood of an economic slowdown is heightened,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n

For the first six months of 2024, headline inf<\/span>lation averaged 3.5%, slightly higher than the central bank\u2019s 3.3% full-year forecast.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnticipated shifts in regional and global value chains, tightening fiscal constraints, growing geopolitical instability, and the Philippines\u2019 vulnerability to climatic shocks (i.e., a single typhoon that hits Central Luzon has the outsized potential to severely aggravate existing agricultural productivity issues) are other potential threats on the horizon,\u201d the think tank said.<\/span><\/p>\n

The CPBRD expects growth momentum to continue in the second and third quarters, before decelerating in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

In a low-growth trajectory, the think tank sees gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 5.05% in the second quarter, 5.7% in the third quarter and 3.56% in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe low-growth trajectory can be viewed as the expected scenario if inf<\/span>lation accelerates and begins eroding productivity \u2014 sooner rather than later,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, the CPBRD\u2019s high-growth scenario sees GDP expanding by 6.3% in the second quarter, 7.04% in the third quarter and 5.35% in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the Philippine economy faces signif<\/span>icant headwinds, it also has the potential for robust and inclusive growth. The path forward necessitates a balanced approach that addresses immediate challenges while laying the foundation for long-term sustainable development,\u201d the CPBRD said.<\/p>\n

The think tank said a strong partnership between the government and the private sector can help the Philippines realize its full economic potential.<\/p>\n

The Philippine economy faces both challenges and opportunities in the current global economic landscape, it said.<\/p>\n

\u201cExploiting its strengths in services, manufacturing, and agriculture, the country can position itself as a competitive player in emerging regional markets \u2014 and eventually the global market,\u201d it said. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis, however, requires a collaborative ef<\/span>fort from both the public and private sectors to build robust markets, foster innovation, and leverage emerging technologies.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said the government\u2019s 6-7% GDP growth target is not out of reach despite elevated interest rates and high inf<\/span>lation.<\/p>\n

\u201cRising remittances and a potential infrastructure spending boost of<\/span>fer promising signs,\u201d he said in a Viber message.<\/p>\n

\u201cStreamlining regulations, investing in vital infrastructure, and nurturing a skilled workforce can unlock private sector potential beyond restrictive requirements,\u201d Mr. Roces said adding that the Marcos administration\u2019s focus on infrastructure and public-private partnerships is a step in the right direction.<\/p>\n

The government should also limit its intervention in the economy to allow the private sector to stimulate the local economy, Leonardo A. Lanzona, an economics professor at the Ateneo de Manila, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe economy is so dependent on government expenditures that any underspending causes a negative ef<\/span>fect on growth,\u201d he told BusinessWorld<\/i>. \u201cWith private consumption and investment declining, the government in turn has crowded out the private sector and hence not been able to meet its targets.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said Philippine GDP growth could normalize to around 5.5-6.5% annually in the coming years.<\/p>\n

In a Viber message, he said it would be possible for the Philippines to achieve 6% GDP growth in the following quarters due to the continued recovery of businesses and increases in government spending in preparation for the 2025 midterm elections.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

THE GOVERNMENT of President Ferdinand R. 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