{"id":19719,"date":"2024-07-12T03:10:14","date_gmt":"2024-07-12T03:10:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/phl-likely-to-be-big-winner-once-india-eases-rice-export-restrictions\/"},"modified":"2024-07-12T03:10:14","modified_gmt":"2024-07-12T03:10:14","slug":"phl-likely-to-be-big-winner-once-india-eases-rice-export-restrictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/phl-likely-to-be-big-winner-once-india-eases-rice-export-restrictions\/","title":{"rendered":"PHL likely to be \u2018big winner\u2019 once India eases rice export restrictions"},"content":{"rendered":"
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THE PHILIPPINES is seen to benefit the most from an expected decline in global rice prices once India relaxes restrictions on rice exports, Nomura Global Markets Research said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect the Philippines to be the biggest winner in Asia, given the high share of rice in its consumer price index (CPI) basket, its dependence on rice imports and recent rice import tariff reductions,\u201d it said in a report.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Philippines will likely benefit most from falling international rice prices, via positive terms-of-trade effects and easing domestic food price inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Market participants are expecting India, the world\u2019s largest exporter of white rice, to relax restrictions on rice exports soon. Last year, India suspended exports of non-basmati white rice amid concerns over domestic supply.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSince India accounted for 35% of global rice exports in 2022, making it the top rice exporter in the world, its export restrictions pushed up global rice prices and hurt rice importing nations globally,\u201d Nomura said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn our view, India is likely to gradually remove the restrictions on its rice exports in coming months,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n

Nomura said it sees \u201cbrighter\u201d prospects for the Philippines, which is highly dependent on imported rice.<\/p>\n

\u201cNet rice imports accounted for 0.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, the highest in Asia. As such, lower global rice prices should have the most beneficial impact on the Philippines, followed by Indonesia,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Philippine rice imports to hit 4.6 million metric tons (MMT) this year, higher than the Agriculture department\u2019s 3.9 MMT projection.<\/p>\n

As of June 27, the Philippines had imported 2.31 MMT of rice, latest data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed.<\/p>\n

\u201cWithout price controls or subsidies, the pass-through to domestic rice prices is also significant and swift, contributing to more downward pressures on headline inflation, which is already set to be impacted by the government\u2019s announcement of a substantial rice import tariff reduction,\u201d Nomura said.<\/p>\n

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. last month signed Executive Order No. 62, which slashed tariffs on rice imports to 15% from 35%, until 2028.<\/p>\n

The measure is expected to bring down retail rice prices by P6 to P7 per kilo, the Agriculture department said earlier.<\/p>\n

Nomura noted the weight of rice in the Philippines\u2019 CPI basket at 8.9%, which is \u201cmuch higher\u201d than its neighboring countries.<\/p>\n

In June, rice inflation eased to 22.5% from 23% a month ago. This marked the third straight month of slower rice inflation.<\/p>\n

Rice accounted for 45.2% of overall inflation, equivalent to 1.7 percentage points.<\/p>\n

\u201cEasing inflation would further support our view that BSP will start its easing cycle by October, although the risk of an earlier first rate cut (i.e., in August) is rising, given recent comments by Governor Remolona that BSP does not have to wait for the Fed,\u201d Nomura added.<\/p>\n

Roehlano M. Briones, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said rice prices could further decline if India eases its restrictions.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe rice tariff cut is expected to reduce the price by about P7. (Prices can go) lower if India lifts restrictions,\u201d he said in a Viber message.<\/p>\n

Latest data from the Agriculture department showed that the average price of well-milled rice ranged from P48-55 per kilogram as of July 10, while regular milled rice was P45-52.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere could be a further decline in import prices, but exporters to the Philippines could also adjust their prices upwards knowing that we have reduced our tariffs,\u201d Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, said in a Viber message.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt remains to be seen whether rice retail prices will go down and benefit consumers,\u201d he added.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mr. Montemayor said that based on his computations, the margin between import and retail prices shrink when import prices go up. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOnce import prices go down coupled with the lowered tariff rate, market intermediaries might just recoup the margins they lost and not pass on any benefit to consumers.\u201d \u2014 Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

THE PHILIPPINES is seen to benefit the most from an expected decline in global rice prices once India relaxes restrictions on rice exports, Nomura Global Markets Research said. \u201cWe expect the Philippines to be the biggest winner in Asia, given the high share of rice in its consumer price index (CPI) basket, its dependence on [\u2026]<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[232,14644,13089,16594,5646,252,2558,11354,9801,966,1514],"class_list":["post-19719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-big","tag-bworldonline","tag-eases","tag-export","tag-india","tag-likely","tag-once","tag-phl","tag-restrictions","tag-rice","tag-winner"],"yoast_head":"\nPHL likely to be \u2018big winner\u2019 once India eases rice export restrictions - Energy Buzz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/phl-likely-to-be-big-winner-once-india-eases-rice-export-restrictions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"PHL likely to be \u2018big winner\u2019 once India eases rice export restrictions - 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