{"id":18887,"date":"2024-05-23T03:06:06","date_gmt":"2024-05-23T03:06:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/pesos-nonstop-fall-may-stoke-prices\/"},"modified":"2024-05-23T03:06:06","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T03:06:06","slug":"pesos-nonstop-fall-may-stoke-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/pesos-nonstop-fall-may-stoke-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Peso\u2019s nonstop fall may stoke prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"p2\">By <b>Aaron Michael C. Sy, <\/b><span class=\"s2\"><i>Reporter<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s3\">A PROLONGED depreciation of the Philippine peso could stoke inflation, though it could also benefit the economy by boosting export earnings, analysts said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">\u201cWe see the peso\u2019s weakness against the dollar persisting,\u201d Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said in a Viber message on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">\u201cThe BSP has to be ready, as they have done in the past, to intervene and battle volatility and speculative play,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s4\">Diwa C. Guinigundo, country analyst at GlobalSource Partners, said the peso\u2019s weakness could boost export competitiveness \u201cas long as its pass-through to inflation does not exceed the benefits of external competitiveness.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">\u201cThat is growth positive,\u201d he said in a Viber message. \u201cAs long as the peso avoids a sharp and prolonged depreciation, the impact on inflation could be manageable. Otherwise, imported inflation could be very problematic.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">The peso closed at P58.06 against the dollar, 21 centavos stronger than on Tuesday, when it closed at the weakest level in 18 months, according to Bankers Association of the Philippines data.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">The currency has depreciated by P2.69 this year from its P55.37-a-dollar close on Dec. 29, 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">Mr. Guinigundo, a former central bank deputy governor, said the peso could strengthen if the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) turns more hawkish again.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">\u201cAny hint of the BSP\u2019s less hawkish stance could move the market,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. last week said the central bank could cut rates as early as August and earlier than the Fed amid easing in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation. He also expects one or two 25-basis-point rate cuts in the second half.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">The peso is likely to be dragged down by the widening balance of payment (BoP) deficit, Mr. Guinigundo said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">The payment position widened to a $639-million de<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>icit in April from the $148-million gap a year earlier, according to BSP data. This was also a reversal of the $1.17-billion surplus in March.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">The BSP expects the country\u2019s BoP position to end at a $700-million de<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>icit, equivalent to 0.1% of economic output.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s5\">Juan Paolo E. Colet, managing director at China Bank Capital Corp., said the peso\u2019s weakness could a<\/span><span class=\"s6\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">fect companies with dollar loans.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">\u201cOur currency\u2019s weakness will have an impact on companies that have borrowed in US dollars but whose revenues are mainly in peso, because it becomes more expensive to [pay] the debt,\u201d he said in a Viber message.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">The peso has been weaker than its regional peers, and it\u2019s mainly depreciating due to the Philippine central bank\u2019s dovish tone, Emilio S. Neri, Jr., lead economist at Bank of the Philippine Islands, said in a Viber message.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">\u201cThe Philippine economy\u2019s narrowing current account deficit combined with possible softening of forthcoming US in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation may cap what seems to be a near-term overshoot of the exchange rate versus its expected medium-term trend,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s4\">The BSP estimates a $6.1-billion current account deficit this year, or 1.3% of economic output.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">Companies welcome an earlier rate cut by the BSP because it is a sign of slowing inflation, Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong &amp; Co., said in a Viber message.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">Inflation quickened to 3.8% in April from 3.7% in March, still within the central bank\u2019s 2-4% target for the year. It was slower than 6.6% a year earlier.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\">It averaged 3.4% in the first four months, below the BSP\u2019s 3.8% full-year forecast.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s7\">Mr. Ravelas said the peso would probably remain at the P58 level as long as the BSP remains dovish.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div>A PROLONGED depreciation of the Philippine peso could stoke inflation, though it could also benefit the economy by boosting export earnings, analysts said.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[14644,3759,170,18029,14126,1435,15717],"class_list":["post-18887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-bworldonline","tag-fall","tag-may","tag-nonstop","tag-pesos","tag-prices","tag-stoke"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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