{"id":18724,"date":"2024-05-13T03:03:27","date_gmt":"2024-05-13T03:03:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/bsp-expected-to-keep-rates-steady\/"},"modified":"2024-05-13T03:03:27","modified_gmt":"2024-05-13T03:03:27","slug":"bsp-expected-to-keep-rates-steady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/bsp-expected-to-keep-rates-steady\/","title":{"rendered":"BSP expected to keep rates steady\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"p2\">By <b>Luisa Maria Jacinta C. <\/b><span class=\"s2\"><b>Jocson, <\/b><\/span><i>Reporter <\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng <\/span><span class=\"s4\">Pili<\/span>pinas (BSP) is widely expected to extend its policy pause for a <span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>ifth straight meeting this week as in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation risks remain.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">A <i>BusinessWorld<\/i> poll of 19 analysts conducted last week showed 17 analysts expect the Monetary Board to maintain its target reverse repurchase rate at a 17-year high of 6.5% at its policy review on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">On the other hand, one analyst expects the BSP to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps), while another sees the central bank raising rates amid persistent in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><a title=\"Analysts\u2019 Expectations on Policy Rates (May 2024)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/142608056@N02\/53714368407\/in\/photostream\/\" data-flickr-embed=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"high\" loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/53714368407_3f3d69e621_o.jpg\" alt=\"Analysts\u2019 Expectations on Policy Rates (May 2024)\" width=\"300\" height=\"4428\"><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>The central bank has raised borrowing costs by a cumulative 450 bps from May 2022 to October 2023 to tame in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cThe Philippine central bank\u2019s May 16<sup>th<\/sup> meeting is likely to see a hold on interest rates. This aligns with their recent cautious approach and the need to balance inflation control with economic growth,\u201d Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Headline inflation quickened for a third straight month to 3.8% in April from 3.7% in March. April marked the <span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>ifth straight month that in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation fell within the BSP\u2019s 2-4% target range.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s6\">Inflation averaged 3.4% in the <\/span><span class=\"s5\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">irst four months, still below the cen<\/span>tral bank\u2019s 3.8% full-year forecast.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s7\">Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said that the central bank will keep its benchmark rate unchanged as \u201cin<\/span><span class=\"s5\">f<\/span><span class=\"s7\">lation remains uncertain just as growth indicators generally continue to show resilience.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">In a note, Chinabank Research said the BSP would likely maintain its hawkish stance this week, given the risks to inflation and weaker-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) expansion in the <span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>irst quarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\">\u201cThe country\u2019s GDP growth came in weaker than expected at 5.7% in the <span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>irst quarter but was still a solid print, outperforming some of our regional peers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s7\">This should provide the BSP room to keep monetary settings unchanged (this) week,\u201d Chinabank Research added.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">The Philippine economy grew by 5.7% in the first quarter, faster than 5.5% in the fourth quarter but slower than 6.4% in the year-ago period.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">This fell short of the government\u2019s 6-7% full-year target for 2024 and was below the 5.9% median forecast in a <i>BusinessWorld<\/i> poll of 20 economists.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cThe BSP will be careful not to cut rates prematurely as it is anticipating a pickup in forthcoming monthly in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation prints just as risk of in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation reacceleration remains somewhat elevated amid trade, climate and geopolitical uncertainties from August 2024 onwards,\u201d Mr. Neri said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">The BSP has said that in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation could temporarily accelerate to above the 2-4% target range in the next two quarters due to base e<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>fects and the impact of weather conditions on agricultural production.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cOur baseline forecasts still point to a breach of the in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation target from May to August due to the continuation of unfavorable base e<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>fects amid a challenged supply environment,\u201d Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Joseph A. Arogo said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Sarah Tan, an economist from Moody\u2019s Analytics, said that inflation may \u201cbump around the upper limit\u201d over the coming months due to the El Ni\u00f1o dry spell.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">As of April 30, agricultural damage from El Ni\u00f1o had reached P5.9 billion. Rice was the most affected crop, accounting for 53.21% or P3.14 billion of the total damage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cWe still expect in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation to breach the upper bound of the BSP\u2019s target range in the short term in May, but this should be temporary and we\u2019re hoping that the (Monetary) Board will see past this at next month\u2019s meeting,\u201d Pantheon Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion also cited other risks to the inflation outlook, such as a potential adjustment to daily minimum wages.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s8\">\u201cPresident Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. has ordered a review of the daily wage rates through the regional tripartite wage boards that will be treated as a looming <\/span><span class=\"s7\">risk to the in<\/span><span class=\"s5\">f<\/span><span class=\"s7\">lation outlook,\u201d he said. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">In June 2023, the wage board in the National Capital Region approved a P40 increase, bringing the minimum wage to P610 from P570 for workers in the non-agricultural sector.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Senators have approved a bill on second reading increasing the daily minimum wage in the private sector by P100.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p9\"><b>PESO WEAKNESS<br \/>\n<\/b>Analysts said that the BSP is likely to keep rates steady amid the recent peso weakness.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s8\">\u201cWe expect the BSP to remain on hold at the next meeting given the still elevated in<\/span><span class=\"s5\">f<\/span><span class=\"s8\">lation rate and high pressures on the peso from the stronger US dollar,\u201d Makoto Tsuchiya, an economist from Oxford Economics, said in an e-mail. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">The local unit closed at P57.42 against the dollar on Friday, weaker by four centavos from its P57.38 <span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>inish on Thursday. The peso returned to the P57-level in April amid the escalating con<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lict in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cMoreover, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates soon and a reduction in the Philippine-US interest rate di<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>ferential will put more pressure on the exchange rate to weaken,\u201d Mr. Arogo said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">The central bank is also unlikely to cut rates ahead of the US Federal Reserve, analysts said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cWith the Fed likely cutting rates in September or possibly even later, BSP\u2019s <span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>irst rate cut will likely follow the Fed action,\u201d ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Mr. Asuncion said the BSP will likely wait to cut rates \u201cuntil El Ni\u00f1o e<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>fects have receded, local food supply has normalized, and rice in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation has materially narrowed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has said that while the central bank monitors the Fed, its decisions are independent of the Fed\u2019s own moves.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">The US central bank kept its Fed funds rate steady at 5.25-5.5% at its latest meeting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s8\">\u201cThe latest in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s8\">lation data is still within the BSP\u2019s in<\/span><span class=\"s5\">f<\/span><span class=\"s8\">lation target of 2-4% for the <\/span><span class=\"s5\">f<\/span><span class=\"s8\">ifth straight month that could still support possible local policy rate cuts later in 2024, especially if the Fed starts cutting rates,\u201d Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Capital Economics Senior Asia Economist Gareth Leather sees the BSP cutting rates starting as early as August.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Meanwhile, Moody\u2019s Analytics Ms. Tan said that the odds of a rate hike at Thursday\u2019s meeting are low.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cWith inflation surprising to the downside, there is no pressure for the BSP to hike its policy rate further in the Monetary Board meeting (this) week. There is also no need to hike to support the peso and prevent any forex-induced in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation with the peso strengthening against the US dollar after the US jobs data came in weaker than expected,\u201d HSBC economist for ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Aris D. Dacanay said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">On the other hand, De La Salle University School of Economics professor Jesus Felipe said that the BSP may possibly raise rates by 25 bps.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cThe situation is complicated. On the one hand, in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation uncertainty remains plus the peso depreciation,\u201d he said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cOur models indicate that the currency will stay at the current level and that inflation will stay in the upper part of BSP\u2019s target, between 3.5% and 4%. This leads us to think that BSP may increase its policy rate,\u201d he added. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Meanwhile, Ser Percival Pe\u00f1a-Reyes, director of the Ateneo de Manila University Center for Economic Research and Development, said that the central bank may consider easing rates as in<span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>lation is still within target.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">\u201cThe BSP might go for a rate cut this time due to weaker-than-expected economic growth. Its decision to do so might be in<span class=\"s9\">f<\/span>luenced by the fact that in<span class=\"s10\">f<\/span>lation came within its target,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\">Mr. Remolona earlier said they may consider cutting rates if inflation can settle <span class=\"s5\">f<\/span>irmly at around 3% for consecutive months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div>THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) is widely expected to extend its policy pause for a fifth straight meeting this week as inflation risks remain.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18725,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5796,14644,4818,3550,8579,15525],"class_list":["post-18724","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-bsp","tag-bworldonline","tag-expected","tag-keep","tag-rates","tag-steady"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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