{"id":18657,"date":"2024-05-08T03:00:33","date_gmt":"2024-05-08T03:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/phl-inflation-quickens-to-3-8-in-april\/"},"modified":"2024-05-08T03:00:33","modified_gmt":"2024-05-08T03:00:33","slug":"phl-inflation-quickens-to-3-8-in-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/phl-inflation-quickens-to-3-8-in-april\/","title":{"rendered":"PHL inflation quickens to 3.8% in April"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"p2\">By <b>Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, <\/b><i>Reporter<\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s2\">HEADLINE INFLATION picked up for a third straight month in April amid higher <\/span><span class=\"s3\">food and transport costs, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Tuesday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">While the annual rise was below market expectations, it supports the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas\u2019 (BSP) decision to maintain its hawkish pause, analysts said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">The pickup also \u201cunderscores the need for vigilance,\u201d the National Economic and Development Authority said in a statement.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Inflation rates in the Philippines\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/142608056@N02\/53705055808\/in\/photostream\/\" data-flickr-embed=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/53705055808_1ae76e3a23_o.jpg\" alt=\"Inflation rates in the Philippines\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1257\"><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The consumer price index (CPI) quickened to 3.8% year on year in April from 3.7% in March, preliminary data from the PSA showed. Still, this was slower than the 6.6% print in the same month a year ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\">This was within the BSP\u2019s 3.5-4.3% forecast for April CPI and marked the <\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s2\">ifth straight month that in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s2\">lation settled within the central bank\u2019s 2-4% annual target range.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The April print was also below the 4.1% median estimate in a <i>BusinessWorld<\/i> poll of 16 analysts conducted last week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s5\">Month on month, in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">lation inched down by 0.1%. <\/span><span class=\"s3\">Stripping out seasonality factors, <\/span><span class=\"s5\">month-on-month <\/span><span class=\"s3\">in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s3\">lation picked up by 0.2%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">For the <span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>irst four months, headline in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation averaged 3.4%, still below the BSP\u2019s 3.8% full-year forecast.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe inflation outturn is consistent with the BSP expectations that inflation could accelerate temporarily above the target range in the next two quarters of the year due to the possible negative impact of adverse weather conditions on domestic agricultural output and positive base effects,\u201d the central bank said in a statement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cLooking ahead, the Monetary Board will consider the latest in<\/span><span class=\"s7\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">lation and <\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">irst-quarter 2024 GDP (gross domestic product) outturns, among other information, in its upcoming monetary policy meeting on May 16. The BSP also continues to support the National Government\u2019s non-monetary measures to address supply-side pressures on prices and sustain the <\/span><span class=\"s3\">disin<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s3\">lation process,\u201d the central bank added.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a title=\"How much did each commodity group contribute to April inflation?\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/142608056@N02\/53705055838\/in\/dateposted\/\" data-flickr-embed=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/53705055838_f78f48c7ed_o.jpg\" alt=\"How much did each commodity group contribute to April inflation?\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1255\"><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The PSA will release <span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>irst-quarter GDP data on May 9, Thursday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Core in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation, which excludes volatile prices of food and fuel, slowed to 3.2% in April from 3.4% in the previous month and 7.9% a year ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">April inflation was mainly driven by the faster annual increase in the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index, National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The index jumped to 6% from 5.6% in the previous month but was slower than 7.9% a year earlier.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s5\">Food inflation alone accelerated to 6.3% from 5.7% in March. However, this was slower than the 8% print in the same month in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">One of the primary contributors to faster food in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation was vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, which rose to 4.3% from the 2.5% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">Mr. Mapa noted a rise in onion prices. \u201cWe saw onion prices slightly increase in April. Compared to last year, it\u2019s lower, but we saw an increase from March to April.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">PSA data showed that the average price of onion was at P126.50 per kilo outside the National Capital Region (NCR) in April. Within the region, it averaged P90.30 per kilo. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The cereals and cereal products index was also a major contributor to food inflation, rising by 16.9% in April. This was slower than 17.3% a month ago but faster than 5.4% a year prior.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Rice in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation surged by 23.9% in April. However, this was slower than 24.4% a month prior.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cRice has a substantial contribution, it contributed around 46.2% to overall in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation. In the 3.8% in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation rate, it contributed around 1.75 percentage points,\u201d Mr. Mapa said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The slight easing in rice in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation is attributable to the decline in world rice prices, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWhat we saw is that world prices of rice are going down slightly. It peaked in January and then it went down in February and March. That may have an impact on the decline of prices of rice,\u201d Mr. Mapa added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">PSA data showed that prices of well-milled and special rice saw decreases on a month-on-month basis in April, while regular-milled rice posted an increase.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The average price of a kilo of well-milled rice dropped to P56.42 in April from P56.44 a month ago while special rice averaged P64.68 from P64.75. Meanwhile, regular milled rice rose to P51.25 from P51.11 in the previous month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">April in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation was also driven by faster increases in transport prices, the PSA said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Transport inflation rose to 2.6% from 2.1% in the previous month and matched the 2.6% print a year ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">This was primarily due to the faster rise in prices of diesel and gasoline, Mr. Mapa said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Diesel quickened to 4.2% in April from the -0.1% print a month ago while gasoline accelerated to 3.3% from 0.8% in March.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">In April, pump price adjustments stood at a net increase of P2.25 a liter for gasoline and P0.50 a liter for diesel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Meanwhile, the in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation rate for the bottom 30% of income households quickened to 5.2% in April from 4.6% in the previous month. This was slower than the 7.4% print a year ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">In the first two months, the inflation rate averaged 4.4% for the bottom 30%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">In the NCR, in<span class=\"s6\">f<\/span>lation slowed to 2.8% in April from 3.3% in March. Inflation in areas outside NCR accelerated to 4.1% from 3.8%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><b>INFLATION, POLICY OUTLOOK<br \/>\n<\/b><span class=\"s3\">The BSP said risks to the in<\/span><span class=\"s7\">f<\/span><span class=\"s3\">lation outlook remain tilted to the upside.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">\u201cPossible further price pressures are linked mainly to higher transport charges, elevated food prices, higher electricity rates, and global oil prices. Potential minimum wage adjustments could also give rise to second-round e<\/span><span class=\"s7\">f<\/span><span class=\"s3\">fects,\u201d it said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Still, the central bank said it expects the inflation average to be within its target for this year and next.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Headline inflation averaged 6% in 2023, marking the second straight year that it breached the BSP\u2019s annual goal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cIn<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation will likely continue to trend upwards and could possibly breach the target in mid-2024 due to unfavorable base effects unless there are signi<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>icant price reversals,\u201d Chinabank Research said in a report.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">It cited weather conditions such as the El Ni\u00f1o dry spell and the emergence of the La Ni\u00f1a, which could a<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s3\">fect local rice production.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\">As of April 30, agricultural damage due to the El Ni\u00f1o reached P5.9 billion. Rice was the most affected crop, accounting for 53.21% of total agricultural damage, equivalent to P3.14 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">Pantheon Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said the uptick in April in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s3\">lation was driven by the acceleration in food in<\/span>f<span class=\"s3\">lation, which will continue to persist.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">\u201cThis statistical boost will persist in May \u2014 likely pushing the headline up temporarily and marginally above the 4% upper-bound of the BSP\u2019s target range \u2014 before unwinding substantially from June to September,\u201d he said in a note.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Following the April CPI print, analysts expect the central bank to keep borrowing costs steady for a fifth straight time at its meeting this month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201c(The) in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation report lessens the pressure on the BSP to resort to additional tightening to fend off price pressures,\u201d ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cBSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. believes monetary policy settings are appropriate and we expect BSP to retain all policy settings at their policy meeting on May 16,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s2\">The Monetary Board in April kept its benchmark rate at a near 17-year high of 6.5% following cumulative hikes worth 450 basis points from May 2022 to October 2023 to help bring down in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s2\">lation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s7\">Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said April inflation settling within the BSP\u2019s target for the <\/span><span class=\"s6\">f<\/span><span class=\"s7\">ifth straight month could support rate cuts later this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s7\">Mr. Chanco added that rate cuts could begin at the Monetary Board\u2019s June 27 meeting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThis call is also based on the assumption that Thursday\u2019s first-quarter GDP report will disappoint markedly, ultimately weighing more on the Board\u2019s thinking next month over a likely short-lived breach of its in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation target in the May CPI report,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s7\">A <i>BusinessWorld<\/i> poll of 20 economists and analysts conducted last week yielded a median GDP growth estimate of 5.9% for the <\/span><span class=\"s6\">f<\/span><span class=\"s7\">irst quarter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">\u201cWe maintain our view that full-year inflation would settle within target this year, which would give room for the BSP to begin its monetary easing cycle, likely at the <\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s3\">inal quarter of the year,\u201d Chinabank Research added.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div>HEADLINE INFLATION picked up for a third straight month in April amid higher food and transport costs, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Tuesday.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18658,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[15899,88,14644,4285,11354,16205],"class_list":["post-18657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-3-8","tag-april","tag-bworldonline","tag-inflation","tag-phl","tag-quickens"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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