{"id":18579,"date":"2024-05-03T03:03:15","date_gmt":"2024-05-03T03:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/inflation-likely-quickened-in-april\/"},"modified":"2024-05-03T03:03:15","modified_gmt":"2024-05-03T03:03:15","slug":"inflation-likely-quickened-in-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/inflation-likely-quickened-in-april\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation likely quickened in April"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"p2\">By <b>Luisa Maria Jacinta C. <\/b><span class=\"s2\"><b>Jocson, <\/b><\/span><i>Reporter<\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s3\">HEADLINE INFLATION may <\/span>have quickened for a third straight month in April and possibly breached the Philippine central bank\u2019s 2-4% target range, analysts said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">A <i>BusinessWorld<\/i> poll of 16 analysts yielded a median estimate of 4.1% for the consumer price index (CPI) in April, within the 3.5-4.3% forecast of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">If realized, April inflation would be faster than 3.7% in March but slower than the 6.6% print a year ago.<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Analysts\u2019 April inflation rate estimates\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/142608056@N02\/53693456876\/in\/dateposted\/\" data-flickr-embed=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"high\" loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/energybuzz.ph\/staging\/6915\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/53693456876_68d1530758_o.jpg\" alt=\"Analysts\u2019 April inflation rate estimates\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1024\"><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">This would also surpass the 2-4% target band for the <span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>irst time since the 4.1% print in November 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s5\">April would also mark the third straight month that in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s5\">lation picked <\/span><span class=\"s6\">up on a month-on-month basis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will release April CPI data on May 7.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cI\u2019m expecting a further rise in in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation in April to 4.1%, breaching the 4% upper bound of the BSP\u2019s target range for the first time in five months,\u201d Pantheon Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe silver lining, though, is that this further upshift should be down mainly to adverse food price base e<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>fects \u2014 a technicality \u2014 rather than a real intensi<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>ication of food price pressures,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said the monthly change in food prices appear to have \u201cstabilized\u201d in April.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cBut a noticeable uptick of the year-on-year headline print in April from March is likely to emanate more from unfavorable base e<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>fects, something we expect to persist in May and June,\u201d Mr. Neri said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">Analysts noted that food in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s3\">lation continued to be the main driver of in<\/span><span class=\"s7\">f<\/span><span class=\"s3\">lation. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said rice in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation is expected to be north of 24% year on year due to \u201ctight supply conditions\u201d in April.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">In March, rice in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s3\">lation accelerated to 24.4%, its fastest print since the 24.6% in February 2009.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">As of end-April, the price of local well-milled rice averaged P48-P55 a kilo from P39-P46 a year ago, data from the Agriculture department showed. A kilo of regular milled rice averaged P50 from P34-P42 a year ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Analysts also noted April in<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lation will re<span class=\"s3\">f<\/span>lect the impact from the El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe main upward pressure comes from rising food prices as the dry spell from El Ni\u00f1o continues to put a toll on crop yields. Notably, rice and pork are the two food items that have su<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>fered heavy supply-side disruptions,\u201d Moody\u2019s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">As of April 23, agricultural damage due to the El Ni\u00f1o has reached P4.39 billion. Rice was the most a<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">fected crop, accounting for 62% of total agricultural damage, equivalent to P2.71 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cPrivate transport will also contribute to in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation in April after several weeks of price increase with only the last week of April seeing prices ease somewhat,\u201d Mr. Mapa said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">For the month of April, pump price adjustments stood at a net increase of P2.25 a liter for gasoline, and P0.50 a liter for diesel. Kerosene prices had a net decrease of P0.80 a liter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cSequentially, fuel prices likely edged higher, particularly towards the end of the month reflecting a temporary jump in the global oil prices,\u201d Makoto Tsuchiya, an economist from Oxford Economics, said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><b>OUTLOOK<br \/>\n<\/b>In<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation may continue to accelerate for the rest of the second quarter before easing in the latter part of the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWe expect headline in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation to peak in the range of at least 5% year on year in April-May, consistent with broad food in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation peaking at 6.2% year on year in April before easing to 5.5% in July,\u201d Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">HSBC economist for ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Aris D. Dacanay said he expects in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lation to return to within the BSP\u2019s 2-4% target band once the unfavorable base e<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>fects wear o<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>f in the third quarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">With in<\/span><span class=\"s3\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">lation likely to remain elevated, the BSP is seen to extend its policy pause at its next meeting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWe think the BSP will stay put at the upcoming meeting given lingering in<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lationary risks as well as recent currency movement,\u201d Mr. Tsuchiya said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The peso returned to the P57 level this month. The BSP has said that this is due to the strong US dollar and not a weak peso amid the Middle East con<span class=\"s4\">f<\/span>lict.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cA faster print, especially above the BSP\u2019s target, will strengthen the case for a sustained policy rate pause in May,\u201d Philippine National Bank (PNB) economist Alvin Joseph A. Arogo said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The Monetary Board stood pat for a fourth straight meeting in April, keeping its benchmark rate at a near 17-year high 6.5%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">From May 2022 to October 2023, the BSP has raised borrowing costs by 450 basis points (bps).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The Monetary Board is set to review policy on May 16.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Weaker-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth may also prompt the BSP to keep its key rate unchanged.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWe suspect that the case for a continued pause will be bolstered by the first-quarter GDP data, which we expect to fall short of expectations,\u201d Mr. Chanco added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The government is targeting 6-7% growth this year. First-quarter GDP data will be released on May 9.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Tsuchiya said he expects the BSP to deliver its first rate cut in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cFor as long as the El Ni\u00f1o impact on food CPI has not receded, BSP will not hesitate to keep its hawkish pause (thus, delay any BSP rate cuts) or highlight the risks to the outlook is still tilted to the upside,\u201d Mr. Asuncion said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">There is also less chance for a rate hike, Ms. Tan said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cThe odds are low for the tightening cycle to resume. BSP is also cognizant that in<\/span><span class=\"s4\">f<\/span><span class=\"s6\">lation can creep above the upper bound of their target range in the second quarter this year. Meanwhile, it is not yet time for BSP to begin monetary easing, especially as the US Federal Reserve appears to be delaying its first policy rate cut,\u201d she added.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The Federal Reserve kept its Fed funds rates steady at its meeting on April 30-May 1.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div>HEADLINE INFLATION may have quickened for a third straight month in April and possibly breached the Philippine central bank\u2019s 2-4% target range, analysts said.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18580,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[88,14644,4285,252,17683],"class_list":["post-18579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-april","tag-bworldonline","tag-inflation","tag-likely","tag-quickened"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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